Axis Life - App Launch Impact Analysis
+2.2x revenue · Isolating app uplift from seasonality
The Situation
A one-day analytics challenge with Axis Max Life Insurance - the app launched March 2, 2025, revenue grew 2.2x, and leadership wanted to know if the app actually caused it or if seasonality and promotions were doing the work.
What I Found
The naive read was straightforward - revenue went up after the app launched, so the app worked. The harder question was whether that would have happened anyway. Tax season, festive periods, and increased marketing spend all land around the same window. Running a regression controlling for promos, holidays, and marketing spend isolated the app's true coefficient - and it held. Daily revenue jumped from Rs 49K to Rs 110K, conversion rate doubled from 2.4% to 4.1%, and app ROI came in at Rs 88 per Re 1 spent versus the web's Rs 30. The more interesting finding was what didn't matter: crash rate had a correlation of ~0.02 with revenue - essentially zero. The org was likely spending engineering cycles on stability fixes that had no measurable revenue impact.
What I Proposed
A Do More / Do Less framework. Scale app marketing over web campaigns - 3x ROI difference makes that straightforward. Run promos on app - the interaction effect added Rs 3K/day over running promos on web alone. Stop over-investing in holiday pushes - uplift was stable regardless. Deprioritise crash fixes until correlation with revenue becomes measurable. North star for the next quarter: app revenue share at 60%+.
Reflection
The interesting output wasn't what drove revenue - it was what didn't, and what that meant for where the team was spending.